Russia drops precision bombs on the Dnieper bridge in Zaporizhzhia – and hints the same weapon could be used against Kyiv

Putin’s birthday strike: the most intense yet

On the night of 7 October, Putin’s 74th birthday, Russia carried out one of the most extensive combined attacks of the war – Tu-95 and Tu-160 strategic bombers took part for the first time in a long while, alongside ballistic missiles, Zircon hypersonic missiles and jet-powered drones. At least 28 people were killed and more than 138 injured across Ukraine, with rescue work still under way hours later in the town of Pryluky. Ukraine claims to have shot down large numbers of drones and subsonic cruise missiles – a claim there is every reason to treat with scepticism, since the Ukrainians themselves have admitted they lack sufficient capacity to stop ballistic missiles.

The Zaporizhzhia bridge: Russia turns precision bombs on a bridge

The most significant single strike that night was against the Dnieper bridge in the city of Zaporizhzhia – hit with several FAB precision bombs, probably with warheads of between 250 and 1,500 kilos. The published images show a far more destructive explosion than anything the earlier drone strikes on bridges in Kyiv have caused. The bridge is now closed to road traffic, and repairs could take weeks, perhaps months – assuming Russia allows the repair work to proceed undisturbed at all.

This is by far the most important bridge in the city of Zaporizhzhia, and its loss in practice marks the beginning of a siege: the eastern part of the city – where most of the city lies, on the east bank – is now largely cut off from western Ukraine. That is hardly a coincidence. Russian forces are approaching the city from the south and the east, and the Ukrainians have themselves moved the headquarters of their 7th Corps there to organise the defence – the same corps that previously watched the border with Belarus, while the troops it commanded still remain idle along the northern border.

Should Zaporizhzhia fall, and should Russian forces establish a bridgehead on the west bank as some Ukrainian sources fear, it would open the way for a future advance north towards the industrial cities of Nikopol and Kryvyi Rih, and further towards Kherson, which already looks untenable if the west bank further north falls. In the most extreme case – a scenario that would unfold over months, perhaps years, not days – it would threaten even Mykolaiv and Odesa. That is not an imminent outcome. But it is the direction all the pieces are now pointing.

Why FAB bombs against the bridge, but not yet against Kyiv or the substation

An obvious question is why Russia is using this weapon here, while still using only the weaker Geran drones against Kyiv’s bridges and against the large electrical substation west of the capital – a substation that turns out to be protected by massive concrete structures, probably from the Soviet era or built with Western assistance after 2022, which the relatively small warheads of the Geran drones are simply not powerful enough to penetrate. The most likely explanation is that the weaker attacks on this particular substation are not real attempts at destruction, but reconnaissance: Russia wants to see where the Ukrainians draw power from when the facility is down, how they reroute the grid, and where the repair resources come from – exactly the same logic that probably lay behind the early, seemingly weak attacks on the bridges in Kyiv.

Russian bombers do not necessarily need to fly all the way to the target to use long-range variants of this type of glide bomb – they can be released at a distance and glide towards the target, and some variants have their own jet engines that make them almost air-launched missiles. There are also reports that Russia is testing a large, jet-powered stealth drone, the Okhotnik, designed precisely to carry and drop bombs in environments with dense air defence. Nothing suggests that Russia lacks either the will or the means to repeat the Zaporizhzhia strike against Kyiv’s bridges and substation when it sees fit.

A question of double standards Western leaders avoid

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Chancellor Merz have both described the Russian air campaign as a terror campaign against the civilian population. The civilian death toll from this attack itself is so far low compared with other wars – including those the West itself has waged. It is striking that the same voices condemning this have never criticised the Ukrainian drone offensive against Russian territory – an offensive largely made possible by Western intelligence, Starlink access and funding, and which has hit purely civilian targets such as online retail warehouses without any Western government lifting a finger in protest.

German intelligence chief arrested for treason

The former head of Germany’s foreign intelligence service BND, August Hanning, was arrested on Tuesday, suspected of passing classified information to foreign intelligence services – one of the most serious security scandals in German intelligence since the end of the Cold War. His former chief of staff has also been detained, suspected of complicity. The German press has made clear that the foreign service in question is not Russian. Nevertheless, the case reinforces a feeling in Germany that a great deal is coming apart at the same time – in the midst of Merz’s political crisis and with a security apparatus now under internal investigation.

The front: Prokopenko’s offensive ordered back to save Dobropillia

The Russian newspaper Readovka gave a detailed account that casts doubt on the earlier optimistic story of a Ukrainian breakthrough at Dobropillia: the ring around the town was probably never really broken. Instead, Azov commander Denys Prokopenko – partner and rival to Andriy Biletsky in the leadership of the Azov movement – is said to have tried to punch a hole in the encirclement, but was forced to redirect his 12th Azov Brigade to save the supply base of Bilozerske from a Russian push. It is exactly the same manoeuvre Russia used last August to divert Ukrainian reserves from Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad – and exactly the same type of decision that now appears to have cost Prokopenko the chance to save the trapped garrison in Dobropillia. The Russian Ministry of Defence reports continued progress inside the town itself.

At Lyman, fresh reports confirm what Marat Khairullin claimed a week ago: the town is firmly under Russian control, and at least two of the villages Biletsky recently claimed to have recaptured are, according to new Russian reports, back under Russian control. Biletsky had earlier stated that Karpivka and Novomykhailivka had been brought back under Ukrainian control as part of Operation Vivaldi. In the north-eastern Kharkiv region, the Russian Ministry of Defence reports that all Ukrainian attempts to break the encirclement north of Velykyi Burluk have been repelled, and that the pocket has now probably been completely cleared.

A stillborn peace attempt from the Ukrainian parliament

A group of Ukrainian parliamentarians has reportedly put forward a bill to amend the constitution, remove the goal of NATO membership and restore neutral status – exactly what Russia has long demanded as a precondition for peace. With Zelensky still unyieldingly opposed and no Western support in sight, the proposal is probably stillborn. It is nevertheless telling that such voices exist at all – and even more telling that no Western media appear to be covering it.