USA leaving Iraq after 23 years.

Guest writer

Tebogo Ledwaba

Tebogo Ledwaba is a South African commentator based in Pretoria. Originally from Soshanguve, Gauteng, he studied at Tshwane University of Technology. His political writing focuses on international affairs, Russia and the post-Soviet space, African perspectives on global politics, and questions of minority rights, language and political double standards. His commentary frequently examines Western foreign policy from a South African perspective and asks how political principles applied to Russia and its neighbours would be understood if the same standards were applied in an African context.

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Guest contribution. The views expressed are the writer's own.

1. US over extension.

2. Multipllarity

3. European devastating loss.

Let’s cover all of them.

1. USA has 900 military installations around the world. Logistics to maintain all the bases and installations drains a lot of US 1 trillion budget. A big chunk goes to maintaining these bases, paying thousands of contracts. And at the end, Iran has proven that the way wars are fought has changed. What looked like deterrence and containment can be liability in modern warfare.

So America in my view is moving towards a phase of neo-neocolononialism.

Having to profit from minerals in the region without the burden of having to fight those who are not happy with their minerals being taken.

Multipolarity.

Russia and China showed massive resistance. The Ukraine narrative collapsed. America is negotiating with Russia and China for a settlement in Iran and Ukraine. Europe is the biggest loser in current developments.

3. Europe devastating loss.

Europe has been under the protectorate of USA.

What has been happening is that Europe has companies from colonial era that pillaged minerals from colonies. When Europe became weak after wars of WW1 &2, they handed the mantle to America to protect European interests abroad and Europe was to share with America what is being taken from the former colonies.

Many former colonies resisted the new set up and overthrew puppets Britain had installed and expelled the colonial extracting companies.

In my previous post I went through some of those countries and the consequences those countries went through as America protected European interests with wars and sanctions.

Multipolarity and multilateralism doesn’t favour Europe. When the protection of military bases from hostile countries is removed, America can negotiate for America. But how does America negotiate for Europe to remain also extracting minerals?

I don’t think countries will agree.

This is why Europe is calling for European military to be developed. It is because Europe understands that without US military, it loses revenue from former colonies. But what can European military do what America failed to do?

It only leads to Arms race and making Russia, China and Iran richer. Because countries in the global south saw the success of a geran/Shaheed drone. The global south saw successes of Iranian cheap missiles against USA and Israel.

If Europe goes the military route in an attempt to retain the status quo in the global south, we are buying Russian and Iranian drones and missiles to defend ourselves.

The new world will be brutal towards Europe. Europe going against Russia was the biggest mistake. Europe chosing diplomacy in Russia/Ukraine war would’ve prevented the total collapse because cheap Russian gas would ensure factories remain functional and Europe being a destination where the global south would sell resources to. But that is now gone. America threw Europe under the bus.