Rubio’s 11 Percent
During a visit to India, Secretary of State Rubio said the war in Ukraine is “about Donbas”. He told reporters that, at its core, the dispute is over 11 percent of one part of the country that Russia wants but cannot take militarily, and that Ukraine does not want to surrender. Ukraine, he said, has “good reasons” for refusing, both in terms of sovereignty and long-term security. Rubio added that the war cannot be settled on the battlefield and that both sides will have to make concessions. Zelensky responded that Russia now controls 19.3 percent of the country, and that figures such as 25 percent assume that the whole of Donbas is surrendered.
That description fits poorly with what is happening on the ground. It is true that Moscow placed particular emphasis on Donbas in 2022. But Russia has since incorporated Zaporizhzhia and Kherson into its constitution, and with Dobropillia reported taken and Russian forces inside Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka, they are now closer to the last major Ukrainian-held cities in Donbas. The main remaining fortified cities are Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. Much suggests that once that question is settled on the battlefield, Moscow will turn to other issues: NATO, Europe’s security architecture and the form of government Ukraine is to have. Putin said on Thursday that he agrees with Witkoff that the talks must address Europe’s broader security structure. Washington and Moscow therefore do not appear to be discussing the same question.
There is also a major disagreement over where the front line actually stands. Putin says Russia has taken 6,500 square kilometres this year, while ISW has put the figure at around one hundred. Ukrainian DeepState data, however, paint a very different picture: a measurement of its map as of 19 October gives roughly 887 square kilometres of Russian net gains in 2026, almost nine times ISW’s earlier estimate. The difference between the maps may also be shaping perceptions in Washington.
Zaporizhzhia: The Bridge and the Preparations
On Thursday evening, the Vantovyi Bridge in Zaporizhzhia was reportedly struck twice by Russian Geran-4 drones equipped with improved navigation, according to SouthFront. The bridge connects Khortytsia Island with the city’s left bank. It was closed in both directions and partially reopened on Friday for traffic from the island towards Naberezhna Highway. A bridge in the city had already been hit by a drone on 6 October, leaving a large crater in the roadway.
It looks increasingly like a game of cat and mouse. The Russians could probably destroy the bridge with a simultaneous attack by several Su-34s carrying heavy bombs, but instead appear able to switch traffic on and off almost at will. The same pattern can be seen around Kyiv’s bridges. The strikes on Zaporizhzhia and Kyiv appear intended to soften the cities ahead of a possible ground operation. For Kyiv, that is probably months away, perhaps a year. In Zaporizhzhia, it may already have begun. Gerasimov has said Russian forces have taken Malokaterynivka south of the city, though the claim remains unverified, while ISW puts the distance to the city at 11–12 kilometres.
Around Orikhiv, Omelnyk northeast of the city has been reported taken, and the Russians appear intent on pushing farther west. Defending Zaporizhzhia city itself will require troops, and there are growing signs that Ukraine does not have enough of them. The attacks on the bridges also make it harder to move reinforcements in from central Ukraine.
Kyiv Without Its Own Power Generation
Kyiv’s three combined heat and power plants, which before the attacks could produce around 1.3 gigawatts, have according to Ekonomichna Pravda lost the ability to generate electricity. Klitschko said earlier in October that the city’s generation capacity had been “destroyed”, and experts assume that most of the plants have once again been completely knocked out. Kyiv is therefore dependent on electricity from other regions, carried through the central grid and the substations surrounding the city. That leaves the capital far more dependent on the transmission network — and far more vulnerable to further strikes.
Air defence over the capital has been weakened, and a handful of Patriot missiles, if they arrive at all, cannot stop the attacks. The fact that Russia has not yet gone further may be deliberate, and there are signs that Moscow has still not used the full weight of its strike capability against the capital.
At the same time, attacks on Odesa and the Black Sea continue. On Friday, the cargo ship Khoryv sank off Romania after a drone strike, leaving one sailor dead and three missing. Romania and the EU blame Russia, which has not commented on the incident. The vessel was sailing from Ereğli in Turkey to Sulina carrying ferrous metals and had ten Ukrainian and three Azerbaijani crew members on board.
Oleshky: A Local Ceasefire
On Friday, the White House announced that First Lady Melania Trump had brokered a local ceasefire around Oleshky in the Kherson region, directly across the Dnipro from Kherson and effectively cut off. Ukrainian Ombudsman Lubinets led the negotiations on the Ukrainian side, while Yana Lantratova represented Russia.
Gerasimov said Russian forces would cease fire on the Kherson axis from 4 p.m. Tuesday because of the humanitarian operation. The White House, meanwhile, says the local ceasefire begins on 29 October. Peskov says the operation “will undoubtedly take at least several days”. Oleshky had around 24,000 inhabitants before the war; today, mainly elderly residents remain. Putin and Trump are said to have discussed the issue recently.
Moscow’s Airports Shut Down
Ukrainian drones forced all four major Moscow airports to close on Friday, with more than 340 flights delayed or cancelled. Sobyanin says 17 drones were shot down on their way towards the city. Images were published showing drone debris on the runway at Sheremetyevo, and some drones were reportedly launched using balloons. No major damage has been reported. Zelensky says airlines should expect drones in Russian airspace.
An attack of this kind can paralyse the airports temporarily, but keeping them closed for any length of time would require Ukraine to repeat such attacks continuously — something it probably does not have the resources to do.
Druzhkivka Is the Next Target
The Russian military outlet Readovka reports that Russia has begun preparations for the assault on Druzhkivka, the city south of Kramatorsk. At the same time, the outlet says most of Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka remains in the “grey zone”, contradicting Gerasimov’s earlier claim that the settlement had been taken.
If Druzhkivka falls, only Sloviansk and Kramatorsk remain. Ukraine is evacuating families with children from the area, while Russia is also approaching from the north towards Velykyi Burluk and Izium.
Once that point is reached, diplomacy centred on who controls Donbas begins to lose much of its meaning. There are growing signs that Moscow is irritated by the fact that Washington is still presenting proposals involving buffer zones while Russian forces are moving closer to both Zaporizhzhia and Kramatorsk.
