Kyiv Cries Foul Over Warnings That Never Came, While Russia Wears Down Power, Bridges and Railways

Overnight into Tuesday, Russian ballistic missiles struck Kyiv. President Zelensky said Ukraine received no warning from its “partners” before five missiles struck civilian infrastructure. He did not name the United States, but the statement came at the same time as reports that Washington had threatened to suspend intelligence sharing. Foreign Minister Sybiha responded the same day that intelligence cooperation with the United States continues, and that the alert came late because of the type of weapon involved. Air Force spokesman Yurii Ihnat said that this had happened before. Presidential adviser Serhii Beskrestnov warned against jumping to conclusions and pointed out that partner intelligence services do not always detect S-400 launches. Trump says the United States is still sharing intelligence.

Much therefore points to a technical failure rather than an American disengagement. But the statement comes in the middle of an open dispute with Washington, and the Financial Times has reported that US officials threatened to halt intelligence sharing if Kyiv continues attacking Russian refineries. The point remains the same. Missile expert Fabian Hoffmann notes that Europe can only replace US early warning to a very limited extent. A significant part of Ukraine’s early warning against ballistic missiles depends on what the United States and other NATO countries choose to share.

The backdrop is a week of brutal diplomacy. On Friday, Trump announced an agreement with Putin that opens the way for Russian diesel exports despite sanctions. At the same time, he demanded that Kyiv stop bombing Russian refineries, and called for Zelensky to be replaced. On Sunday, Trump declared an “energy ceasefire” without conditions, a timetable or a monitoring mechanism. Neither side had negotiated it.

Zelensky replied that Ukraine was on board if Russia was. He added that he could hold elections in exchange for a 60-day full ceasefire, and proposed a separate “diesel deal” with the United States. The Kremlin rejected it and offered a one-day halt on election day itself. Ukraine says 19 regions were attacked over two days. For now, the ceasefire exists only on Truth Social.

On the morning of 13 October, Russian glide bombs struck Dnipro. Regional authorities reported damage to a “transport infrastructure facility”, apartment blocks and cars, with one person injured. Officials have not specified which facility was hit. The pattern is nevertheless familiar. Russia began striking Kyiv’s bridges across the Dnipro on 1 October, and on 6 October a bridge in Zaporizhzhia was hit. Ukrainian experts have pointed out that drones alone cannot destroy such bridges and that more powerful weapons are required. Air-launched glide bombs are precisely that. The fact that the Russian Air Force is now operating this close to the Dnipro may indicate that air defences have been pulled back towards the capital. Dnipro is one of the two main supply arteries to Donbas.

In Kyiv, the electricity situation is critical. Emergency outages have come in waves since the beginning of October. Mayor Vitali Klitschko says the city has entered “survival mode”, and is advising those with family outside the city to consider leaving temporarily. He is not calling for a full evacuation.

The railway is heading in the same direction. According to Ukrzaliznytsia, 533 of the company’s locomotives had been damaged by 20 September. Another 75 locomotives belong to private companies. Kyiv is now asking European countries with the same track gauge for replacements. Every damaged or destroyed engine puts pressure on civilian trains and grain shipments, and when trains fail to arrive, the roads become the only alternative. That in turn puts pressure on Ukraine’s fuel stocks.

The Russian Defence Ministry reported on 12 October that the village of Nikolske in the Zaporizhzhia region had been taken by naval infantry from the 40th Brigade. It says a defensive area of around 13 square kilometres is under control and that more than 200 buildings have been cleared. These are Russian claims.

More important is Dobropillia. The ministry reports that assault groups from the 51st Army took control of 286 buildings in a single day, including three industrial facilities, and that up to 65 Ukrainian soldiers were neutralised. The day before, the figure was 216 buildings. The tempo is increasing, and the battle for the city appears to be approaching a decision. If Dobropillia falls, it opens the way for Russia to outflank the Sloviansk–Kramatorsk area from the west.

What worries Washington most, however, is Saudi Arabia. The Houthis struck Riyadh airport on 10 October, and the attack killed at least 13 people and injured more than 300. On Tuesday, the Saudi-led coalition struck an oil facility in Sanaa. The Houthis declared Aramco facilities legitimate targets and hit an administrative building at Aramco headquarters in Dhahran, which caught fire. No one was injured. Several major airlines have suspended flights to the country.

According to the Wall Street Journal, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is moving between bunker-protected palaces, surrounded by hand-picked bodyguards, while the kingdom is beginning to run short of interceptor missiles. The United States has so far held back military assistance, while Turkey has rejected an offensive role. Trump says he “may” ask Erdogan to intervene.

Others are already moving. Iran has offered to mediate, and Putin called the president of the United Arab Emirates on Tuesday to discuss developments in the Middle East. Brent crude closed Monday at $106.65 a barrel. If Saudi oil facilities are hit in ways that take months to repair, the energy crisis will be prolonged. An internal crisis in Riyadh would make it worse still.

For Kyiv, the conclusion is uncomfortable. The United States has its hands full in the Gulf, and Ukraine cannot count on help if the front, the power grid and the railway fail at the same time.