Zelensky Resumes Refinery Strikes and Openly Attacks Trump, While Russia Sends 580 Drones Against Ukraine’s Logistics Network

Zelensky spent Wednesday travelling to London, where he met King Charles and Prime Minister Burnham. He complained about almost everything: that he is not receiving enough missiles and air defence, that Starlink is restricted, and that the United States has entered into a diesel agreement with Russia, which he believes should instead be met with tougher sanctions. He told Piers Morgan that he feels betrayed by Trump. The fact that he chose London says something. Britain is one of the few places in Europe where he can still count on a reception without major protests.

Burnham promised faster deliveries of British air-defence missiles. The package is worth £45 million, with £10 million of it being accelerated for Lightweight Multirole Missiles. These are point-defence weapons that can be used against drones, but they are no answer to ballistic missiles. As far as we know, Britain has no PAC-3s to give, and those are precisely what Ukraine lacks.

At the same time, Zelensky told the Financial Times that the restriction on attacks against Russian refineries has been lifted. Kyiv claims to have held back for three days, blaming the decision on Russia’s continued strikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure. The Kremlin claims Ukraine never stopped, and Peskov calls the new attacks “nothing new”. Zelensky himself has made contradictory statements about the ceasefire. At times he appeared positive, at others he rejected it, and most often he said it had to be expanded to cover all energy and civilian infrastructure throughout Ukraine. The impression is that he never accepted it.

Overnight into Thursday, the Ryazan refinery was hit. The governor confirms a fire. The Russian Defence Ministry says that 69 drones and four Flamingo missiles were shot down, and that debris from one drone started the fire. Whether a drone got through or whether it was only falling wreckage is unclear, and both explanations are possible. In any case, the damage is probably limited in relation to the effort involved. Novak claimed the day before that the Saratov refinery had also been attacked.

Zelensky also says Neptune missiles destroyed four Su-34s and damaged two others at a Russian airbase. Reuters has since verified satellite imagery supporting the Ukrainian claim that six Su-34s were hit.

For Moscow, the dispute is useful. Lavrov calls the attacks a “direct and blatant challenge” to Trump, and the Russians are doing everything they can to push Trump and Zelensky further apart. The diesel deliveries to the United States have not begun either. Novak says the first shipment to the United States could come in two to three weeks at the earliest, and that a contract must first be concluded. That weakens the stories that diesel was already on its way. The same day, he said that the fuel situation in Russia had improved significantly over the past two weeks.

Zelensky insists that the United States withheld warnings about the missile attacks and links this to pressure from Washington. In our assessment, the most likely technical explanation is that Russia is increasingly using Zircon missiles, which travel at ten times the speed of sound. If they are launched from ground-based launchers closer to Kyiv, inside territory Russia has taken, the missiles could strike before the Americans have time to issue a warning. The United States would also have little interest in admitting that it has problems tracking Zircon, since that would reveal a military weakness.

What counts against this explanation are the reports that Washington threatened to halt intelligence sharing. According to the FT, the Ukrainians were told that “if you do not stop, we will block the intelligence”. The message was later presented as a mistake. CBS reports that the Americans explained the failure as a result of bad weather, and that the system was working again the following night. Trump and the European Commission say that intelligence sharing never stopped. Both explanations may be partly true.

With Starlink, the picture is similar. The service has been restored for terminals travelling at speeds of up to 160 kilometres per hour, but the limit remains, and Fedorov says it must be removed entirely. Musk writes that Starshield is owned and controlled by the US government, and that the president decides. The White House, according to Axios, says it does not control SpaceX, but will contact the company. This suggests that the United States does not want to expand the use of Starshield to offensive strikes inside Russia. One theory, which has not been confirmed, is that the restriction is also aimed at a planned Ukrainian ballistic missile strike against Moscow.

Russia launched 580 drones and two Kh-59 missiles from 18:00 on Wednesday. The air force reports that 536 were shot down or disrupted, but strikes were nevertheless recorded at 31 locations. The main weight fell on the Kirovohrad region, which received nearly 360 drones across 26 locations. The targets were critical infrastructure, transport and logistics. At least 17 people are reported killed across the country. Neither side has said whether anything more specific was being targeted. Kyiv itself had a relatively quiet night. There is every reason to expect further attacks, and winter has not yet begun.

In Kyiv, they are blaming one another. The Rada voted by 151 votes to summon Klitschko after Zelensky described the city’s winter preparations as a failure. On Wednesday, Klitschko addressed parliament. He rejected the criticism as a political campaign, accused the government of blocking funding and asked where the air defence over the capital is. The answer is that there is probably no effective air defence over Kyiv. Neither Klitschko, Zelensky, the army nor the government can do much about that. What they can do is prepare an evacuation plan for civilians.

The Russian Defence Ministry reports that the clearing of Dobropillia continues from the northwest and west, and that the villages of Nefedovka and Chornoye in the Kharkiv pocket have been taken. It is probably only a matter of time before the pocket is declared cleared and the battle for Velykyi Burluk begins. If that city falls, the road opens south toward Izium and Balakliia and threatens the rear of Biletsky’s forces around Lyman, where the offensive appears to be stalling. Around Orikhiv and Kushuhum, the ministry reports strikes against two mechanised brigades and one mountain-assault brigade. These are Russian claims, and Kyiv has not confirmed them.

Estonia will, according to Eesti Ekspress, close a reserve gas pipeline that Russia can use to supply Kaliningrad. The pipeline is 22 kilometres long and runs through southeastern Estonia. Patrushev has warned that Russia cannot allow a blockade of important sea routes. Closing the pipeline is unlikely to be decisive in itself, but it can easily be read as a first step toward a genuine blockade of Kaliningrad. It is difficult to see what the Baltics have to gain from challenging Russia on its doorstep.