Three Strikes on Kyiv in One Night: 39 Missiles, No Warning and Starlink Throttled

Overnight into Wednesday, Russia launched 39 ballistic missiles and more than 120 drones at energy infrastructure in Kyiv, the Kyiv region and Kharkiv. The attack began late Tuesday evening with a missile strike on a nine-storey residential building, where three women were killed. Air defence reports that only four missiles were shot down. Prime Minister Serhii Koretsky says that all three combined heat and power plants in the capital were attacked, along with facilities in the region that supply Kyiv and central parts of the country. Around 600,000 people are without electricity, and at least six people are reported killed across Ukraine.

The Russian Defence Ministry confirms strikes on power plants and a transformer substation, and also reports a data centre among the targets. Al Jazeera’s correspondent in Kyiv says a record number of hypersonic missiles were used. Russia answered Trump’s “energy ceasefire” with a strike against the energy sector itself.

Ukrainian authorities say they received no advance warning from their partners before the attacks of 12 and 13 October. That is unusual. According to CBS, US officials explained the failure as a result of “bad weather”. Ukrainian sources do not believe that explanation, and some say the United States is “playing” with the system. The same sources say the US warning system was functioning again when the next wave came at around three o’clock on Wednesday morning, and that the United States has not stopped intelligence sharing as a whole. Trump says the same, and the European Commission has no indication that sharing has stopped.

Ukrainian officials have pointed out that Russia is using weapons that are difficult to detect. That may be true, and one possible explanation, though unconfirmed, is that launchers have been moved closer. But two things remain clear. Washington threatened last week to halt both intelligence sharing and weapons purchases through the PURL scheme if Kyiv continues striking Russian refineries. And if the cause is Russian, nobody in Washington can simply switch the warning back on.

At the same time came another blow. Presidential technology adviser Serhii Beskrestnov confirms that SpaceX imposed a speed limit of 160 kilometres per hour on moving Starshield terminals overnight into Wednesday, without warning. Several missions have been disrupted. Among other things, this affects the new interceptor drones used against jet-powered Geran drones, which Beskrestnov describes as one of the country’s most important defences against them. He believes the measure is not accidental. SpaceX has not commented, and Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski has asked Musk whether he is “playing politics”. According to Reuters, Ukrainian drones attacking Russian oil targets use other communication systems. It is the front and the air-defence network that are feeling the effects.

The backdrop is a US-European peace proposal. According to the Washington Post’s David Ignatius, as reported by Meduza, the plan consists of four parts: freezing the war along the current front line, security guarantees for Kyiv, reconstruction through the World Bank and BlackRock, and an energy agreement with gradual sanctions relief. One condition is that Ukraine stop attacking Russian refineries. The proposal was discussed during around sixty hours of meetings in Florida last Friday. Moscow has so far rejected security guarantees of this kind. No US official has confirmed that the intelligence dispute, the Starlink restriction and the peace plan are connected, but the timing is difficult to ignore.

Russian reports state that assault groups from the 51st Army and naval infantry took 142 buildings in Dobropillia over the past 24 hours, and that up to 25 Ukrainian soldiers were neutralised. The day before, the figures were 286 buildings and 65 soldiers. These are Russian figures and have not been confirmed by Kyiv. Around Orikhiv and Kushuhum, the ministry reports strikes on three Ukrainian brigades.

Ukraine is responding with drones. Over the past few days, three Yandex data centres have been hit, and overnight into Wednesday drones struck a data centre under construction for Sberbank in the Saratov region. More than 500 flights in Moscow were disrupted. Russia says it shot down 902 drones overnight.

The Houthis have continued their attacks, and they have hit an administrative building belonging to Aramco in Dhahran. Saudi Arabia is, according to the Wall Street Journal, running low on interceptor missiles. The United States has used around 1,500 Patriot missiles and is estimated to have only about 800 remaining. If one of them has to be prioritised, it is difficult to believe that it will be Kyiv.